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Political violence terrorism and politically motivated killings or destruction intended to advance a political cause has taken the lives of hundreds of U.S. soldiers and civilians in the Middle East in the 1980s and 1990s, and remains a serious threat for the coming decades. Its dangers go beyond lost lives Political violence can create a climate of unrest in a critical region, leading once stable countries such as Lebanon and Algeria to descend into an inferno of strife and civil war. In 1995 and 1996, terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia killed 24 U.S. soldiers, and the possibility for further violence remains real. These terrorist attacks also raise a broader threat to the security of the U.S. regional presence and the stability of area regimes. In a worst case scenario, terrorists also might act in conjunction with regional aggressors, helping them strike behind the lines of U.S. allies and impeding a U.S. military buildup. This report assesses the threat of political violence in the northern Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. It examines general sources of discontent in the Gulf, common reasons for anti regime politicization, potential triggers of violence, and the influence of foreign powers. The report then assesses those strategies that regimes in the area have used to interfere with political organization and to counter violence in general. The report concludes by noting implications of political violence for both the United States and its allies in the Gulf. This assessment is intended to inform both policymakers and individuals concerned with Persian Gulf security. Policymakers can draw on the assessment in judging how to better protect U.S. forces and to understand the true level of threat to Gulf regime stability. This research was conducted for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense Special Operations and Low Intensity ConflictPolicy Planning within the Center for International Security and Defense Policy of RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies. About the AuthorDaniel L. Byman Ph.D., political science, M.I.T. is a policy analyst at RAND whose research interests include modeling ethnic conflict, assessing Middle East politics and security issues, developing countermeasures against terrorism, reevaluating air power theory, and other general issues related to U.S. foreign policy. Jerrold Green PhD, Political Science, University of Chicago is Associate Chair, Research Staff Management Department a Senior Political Scientist and Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy. Research interests and activities include U.S. Foreign Policy, Middle East Politics, Sociopolitical Change in Developing Countries, Impact of the Information Revolution, Terrorism and Political Violence, and Mediterranean Security.
ISBN: 0833027263
Author: Jerrold D. Green, Daniel L. Byman, Rand Corporation
Category: Foreign Relations
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